Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan

Muhammad Khalid Anser, Tayyaba Hina, Shahzad Hameed, Muhammad Hamid Nasir, Ishfaq Ahmad and Muhammad Naseer ()
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Muhammad Khalid Anser: School of Public Administration, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China
Tayyaba Hina: Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Punjab 38040, Pakistan
Shahzad Hameed: The School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Muhammad Hamid Nasir: The School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Ishfaq Ahmad: Centre for Climate Research and Development, COMSATS University, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 7, 1-18

Abstract: There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province’s rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socio-economic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC’s net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.

Keywords: rice-wheat agricultural system; climate change; impact assessment; adaptation packages; Pakistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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