Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM 10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

Jiyun Jung, Jae Young Lee, Hyewon Lee and Ho Kim
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Jiyun Jung: Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-Ro, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
Jae Young Lee: Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-Ro, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
Hyewon Lee: Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-Ro, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
Ho Kim: Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-Ro, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 08826, Korea

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 7, 1-10

Abstract: As climate change progresses, understanding the impact on human health associated with the temperature and air pollutants has been paramount. However, the predicted effect on temperature associated with particulate matter (PM 10 ) is not well understood due to the difficulty in predicting the local and regional PM 10 . We compared temperature-attributable mortality for the baseline (2003–2012), 2030s (2026–2035), 2050s (2046–2055), and 2080s (2076–2085) based on a distributed lag non-linear model by simultaneously considering assumed levels of PM 10 on historical and projected temperatures under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The considered projected PM 10 concentrations of 35, 50, 65, 80, and 95 μg/m 3 were based on historical concentration quantiles. Our findings confirmed greater temperature-attributable risks at PM 10 concentrations above 65 μg/m 3 due to the modification effect of the pollutants on temperature. In addition, this association between temperature and PM 10 was higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. We also confirmed regional heterogeneity in temperature-attributable deaths by considering PM 10 concentrations in South Korea with higher risks in heavily populated areas. These results demonstrated that the modification association of air pollutants on health burdens attributable to increasing temperatures should be considered by researchers and policy makers.

Keywords: modification effect; high-temperature; inhalable particulate matter; regional variation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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