The Relationship between the Migrant Population’s Migration Network and the Risk of COVID-19 Transmission in China—Empirical Analysis and Prediction in Prefecture-Level Cities

Chenjing Fan, Tianmin Cai, Zhenyu Gai and Yuerong Wu
Additional contact information
Chenjing Fan: College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Tianmin Cai: Department of Health Care & Medical Technology, Nanjing Benq Medical Center, Nanjing 210037, China
Zhenyu Gai: College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Yuerong Wu: College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-11

Abstract: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China has attracted wide attention from all over the world. The impact of COVID-19 has been significant, raising concerns regarding public health risks in China and worldwide. Migration may be the primary reason for the long-distance transmission of the disease. In this study, the following analyses were performed. (1) Using the data from the China migrant population survey in 2017 (Sample size = 432,907), a matrix of the residence–birthplace (R-B matrix) of migrant populations is constructed. The matrix was used to analyze the confirmed cases of COVID-19 at Prefecture-level Cities from February 1–15, 2020 after the outbreak in Wuhan, by calculating the probability of influx or outflow migration. We obtain a satisfactory regression analysis result ( R 2 = 0.826–0.887, N = 330). (2) We use this R-B matrix to simulate an outbreak scenario in 22 immigrant cities in China, and propose risk prevention measures after the outbreak. If similar scenarios occur in the cities of Wenzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan, or Shenzhen, the disease transmission will be wider. (3) We also use a matrix to determine that cities in Henan province, Anhui province, and Municipalities (such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing) in China will have a high risk level of disease carriers after a similar emerging epidemic outbreak scenario due to a high influx or outflow of migrant populations.

Keywords: migrant population; COVID-19 transmission; Spring Festival travel rush; China; migration network; emerging epidemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/8/2630/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/8/2630/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:8:p:2630-:d:344350

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().