Development of an Assessment Method for Investigating the Impact of Climate and Urban Parameters in Confirmed Cases of COVID-19: A New Challenge in Sustainable Development

Behrouz Pirouz, Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas, Behzad Pirouz, Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas and Patrizia Piro
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Behrouz Pirouz: Department of Mechanical, Energy and Management Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, Italy
Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, Italy
Behzad Pirouz: Department of Computer Engineering, Modelling, Electronics and Systems Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, Italy
Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, Italy
Patrizia Piro: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, Italy

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-17

Abstract: Sustainable development has been a controversial global topic, and as a complex concept in recent years, it plays a key role in creating a favorable future for societies. Meanwhile, there are several problems in the process of implementing this approach, like epidemic diseases. Hence, in this study, the impact of climate and urban factors on confirmed cases of COVID-19 (a new type of coronavirus) with the trend and multivariate linear regression (MLR) has been investigated to propose a more accurate prediction model. For this propose, some important climate parameters, including daily average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, in addition to urban parameters such as population density, were considered, and their impacts on confirmed cases of COVID-19 were analyzed. The analysis was performed for three case studies in Italy, and the application of the proposed method has been investigated. The impacts of parameters have been considered with a delay time from one to nine days to find out the most suitable combination. The result of the analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model and the impact of climate parameters on the trend of confirmed cases. The research hypothesis approved by the MLR model and the present assessment method could be applied by considering several variables that exhibit the exact delay of them to new confirmed cases of COVID-19.

Keywords: sustainable development; climate and urban parameters; COVID-19; MLR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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