Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model

Tamer Oraby, Michael G. Tyshenko, Hanan H. Balkhy, Yasar Tasnif, Adriana Quiroz-Gaspar, Zeinab Mohamed, Ayesha Araya, Susie Elsaadany, Eman Al-Mazroa, Mohammed A. Alhelail, Yaseen M. Arabi and Mustafa Al-Zoughool
Additional contact information
Tamer Oraby: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA
Michael G. Tyshenko: McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
Hanan H. Balkhy: World Health Organization, 01211 Geneva, Switzerland
Yasar Tasnif: Solid Organ Transplant, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390, USA
Adriana Quiroz-Gaspar: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA
Zeinab Mohamed: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA
Ayesha Araya: Valley Baptist Medical Center, Brownsville, TX 78520, USA
Susie Elsaadany: Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada
Eman Al-Mazroa: Infection Prevention and Control Department, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh 14611, Saudi Arabia
Mohammed A. Alhelail: College of Medicine, King Saud bin Abdulaziz, University for Health Sciences, Riyadh 14611, Saudi Arabia
Yaseen M. Arabi: College of Medicine, King Saud bin Abdulaziz, University for Health Sciences, Riyadh 14611, Saudi Arabia
Mustafa Al-Zoughool: Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, Safat 13110, Kuwait

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-11

Abstract: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging zoonotic coronavirus that has a tendency to cause significant healthcare outbreaks among patients with serious comorbidities. We analyzed hospital data from the MERS-CoV outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) ward transmission model. The SEIR compartmental model considers several areas within the hospital where transmission occurred. We use a system of ordinary differential equations that incorporates the following units: emergency department (ED), out-patient clinic, intensive care unit, and hospital wards, where each area has its own carrying capacity and distinguishes the transmission by three individuals in the hospital: patients, health care workers (HCW), or mobile health care workers. The emergency department, as parameterized has a large influence over the epidemic size for both patients and health care workers. Trend of the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), which reached a maximum of 1.39 at the peak of the epidemic and declined to 0.92 towards the end, shows that until added hospital controls are introduced, the outbreak would continue with sustained transmission between wards. Transmission rates where highest in the ED, and mobile HCWs were responsible for large part of the outbreak.

Keywords: healthcare MERS-CoV outbreak; SEIR ward transmission model; basic reproduction number (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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