Estimation of the Excess COVID-19 Cases in Seoul, South Korea by the Students Arriving from China

Sukhyun Ryu, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Jun-Sik Lim and Byung Chul Chun
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Sukhyun Ryu: Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Konyang University, Daejeon 35365, Korea
Sheikh Taslim Ali: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Jun-Sik Lim: College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea
Byung Chul Chun: Korean Society of Epidemiology 2019-nCoV Task Force Team, Korea

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 9, 1-7

Abstract: Background : In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from China, a country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has arrived in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in the Korean home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. Methods : To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students from China, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and performed a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. Results : Under the home-quarantine program, the number of the infected individuals would reach 40–72 from 12 March–24 March with the arrival of 0.2% of pre-infectious individuals. Furthermore, the number of isolated individuals would peak at 40–64 from 13 March–27 March in Seoul, South Korea. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics by the international student from China were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. Conclusions : To mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine of the individuals from countries with the virus risk are warranted along with other containment policies.

Keywords: coronavirus; COVID-19; simulation; quarantine; compliance; Korea (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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