A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region

Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee and John D. Kelleher
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Elizabeth Hunter: School of Computer Science, Technological University Dublin, D24 FKT9 Dublin, Ireland
Brian Mac Namee: School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland
John D. Kelleher: ADAPT Research Centre, Technological University Dublin, D24 FKT9 Dublin, Ireland

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 9, 1-19

Abstract: In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influences the outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect on whether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centrality of a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policy and intervention strategies such as school closure policies.

Keywords: infectious disease; epidemiology; agent-based model; centrality; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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