Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040

Enrico Oddone, Jordy Bollon, Consuelo Nava (), Giada Minelli, Marcello Imbriani, Dario Consonni, Alessandro Marinaccio, Corrado Magnani and Francesco Barone-Adesi
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Enrico Oddone: Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Jordy Bollon: Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy
Giada Minelli: Statistics Service, Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), 00161 Rome, Italy
Marcello Imbriani: Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Dario Consonni: Epidemiology Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy
Alessandro Marinaccio: Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers’ Compensation Authority (INAIL), 00187 Rome, Italy
Corrado Magnani: Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy
Francesco Barone-Adesi: Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 18, issue 1, 1-5

Abstract: Despite their differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are frequently lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast future mesothelioma trends. This study aims to describe the malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) epidemic in Italy (1996–2016) and to forecast future trends up to 2040 in order to contribute to the assessment of MPeM future burden. All MPeM deaths in Italy from 1996–2016 were collected (as provided by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)) in order to estimate MPeM mortality rates for each 3-year period from 1996 to 2016. Poisson age-period-cohort (APC) models were then used to forecast MPeM future trends. Between 2017 and 2040, 1333 MPeM deaths are expected. The number of MPeM deaths, as well as mortality rates, are expected to constantly decrease throughout the considered period. Based on considering the information from this study, it can be concluded that the MPeM epidemic has probably already reached its peak in Italy.

Keywords: peritoneal mesothelioma; asbestos; APC model; forecasts; public health; occupational medicine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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