Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal

Kankoé Sallah, Roch Giorgi, El-Hadj Ba, Martine Piarroux, Renaud Piarroux, Badara Cisse and Jean Gaudart
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Kankoé Sallah: Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé et Traitement de de l’Information Médicale (SESSTIM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche médicale (INSERM), Aix Marseille Université, 13005 Marseille, France
Roch Giorgi: Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé et Traitement de de l’Information Médicale (SESSTIM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche médicale (INSERM), Aix Marseille Université, 13005 Marseille, France
El-Hadj Ba: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Vecteurs-Infections Tropicales et Méditerranéennes (VITROME), Dakar CP 18524, Senegal
Martine Piarroux: Institut Pierre-Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche médicale (INSERM), AP-HP, Hôpital Pitié-Salpêtrière, Sorbonne Université, 75646 Paris CEDEX 13, France
Renaud Piarroux: Institut Pierre-Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche médicale (INSERM), AP-HP, Hôpital Pitié-Salpêtrière, Sorbonne Université, 75646 Paris CEDEX 13, France
Badara Cisse: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Vecteurs-Infections Tropicales et Méditerranéennes (VITROME), Dakar CP 18524, Senegal
Jean Gaudart: Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé et Traitement de de l’Information Médicale (SESSTIM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche médicale (INSERM), Aix Marseille Université, 13005 Marseille, France

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 18, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: In central Senegal, malaria incidence declined in response to scaling-up of control measures from 2000 to 2010 and has since remained stable, making elimination unlikely in the short term. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots using a metapopulation mathematical model, based on a differential-equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidence from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: (a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; (b) villages with highest incidence during the high transmission season of the previous year; (c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our results showed that intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. Regardless of the intervention strategy used, pre-elimination (1–5 cases per 1000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. A cornerstone of malaria control and elimination is the effective targeting of strategic locations. Mathematical tools help to identify those locations and estimate the impact in silico.

Keywords: malaria elimination; mathematical model; human mobility; intervention chemotherapy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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