Elaboration and Validation of Two Predictive Models of Postpartum Traumatic Stress Disorder Risk Formed by Variables Related to the Birth Process: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Antonio Hernández-Martínez, Sergio Martínez-Vazquez, Julián Rodríguez-Almagro, Miguel Delgado-Rodríguez and Juan Miguel Martínez-Galiano
Additional contact information
Antonio Hernández-Martínez: Department of Nursing, Physiotherapy and Occupational Therapy, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13600 Ciudad Real, Spain
Sergio Martínez-Vazquez: Nursing Department, University of Jaen, 23071 Jaen, Spain
Julián Rodríguez-Almagro: Department of Nursing, Physiotherapy and Occupational Therapy, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13600 Ciudad Real, Spain
Miguel Delgado-Rodríguez: Division of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University of Jaén, 23071 Jaén, Spain
Juan Miguel Martínez-Galiano: Nursing Department, University of Jaen, 23071 Jaen, Spain

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 18, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: This study aimed to develop and validate two predictive models of postpartum post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) risk using a retrospective cohort study of women who gave birth between 2018 and 2019 in Spain. The predictive models were developed using a referral cohort of 1752 women (2/3) and were validated on a cohort of 875 women (1/3). The predictive factors in model A were delivery type, skin-to-skin contact, admission of newborn to care unit, presence of a severe tear, type of infant feeding at discharge, postpartum hospital readmission. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) in the referral cohort was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67–0.74), while in the validation cohort, it was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.63–0.75). The predictive factors in model B were delivery type, admission of newborn to care unit, type of infant feeding at discharge, postpartum hospital readmission, partner support, and the perception of adequate respect from health professionals. The predictive capacity of model B in both the referral cohort and the validation cohort was superior to model A with an AUC-ROC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.79–0.85) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78–0.87), respectively. A predictive model (model B) formed by clinical variables and the perception of partner support and appropriate treatment by health professionals had a good predictive capacity in both the referral and validation cohorts. This model is preferred over the model (model A) that was formed exclusively by clinical variables.

Keywords: post-traumatic stress disorder; predictive model; validation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/1/92/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/1/92/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2020:i:1:p:92-:d:468107

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().