Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural–Urban Comparison

Yuying Li, Taojun Hu, Xin Gai, Yunjun Zhang and Xiaohua Zhou
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Yuying Li: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Taojun Hu: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Xin Gai: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Yunjun Zhang: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Xiaohua Zhou: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 10, 1-10

Abstract: Few studies have examined the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in rural areas and clarified rural–urban differences. Moreover, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) relative to vaccination in rural areas is uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap through using an improved statistical stochastic method based on the Galton–Watson branching process, considering both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Data included 1136 SARS-2-CoV infections of the rural outbreak in Hebei, China, and 135 infections of the urban outbreak in Tianjin, China. We reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains and analyzed the effectiveness of vaccination and NPIs by simulation studies. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 showed strong heterogeneity in urban and rural areas, with the dispersion parameters k = 0.14 and 0.35, respectively ( k < 1 indicating strong heterogeneity). Although age group and contact-type distributions significantly differed between urban and rural areas, the average reproductive number ( R ) and k did not. Further, simulation results based on pre-control parameters ( R = 0.81, k = 0.27) showed that in the vaccination scenario (80% efficacy and 55% coverage), the cumulative secondary infections will be reduced by more than half; however, NPIs are more effective than vaccinating 65% of the population. These findings could inform government policies regarding vaccination and NPIs in rural and urban areas.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; urban–rural; heterogeneity; vaccination; non-pharmaceutical interventions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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