COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea

Youngsuk Ko, Jacob Lee, Yeonju Kim, Donghyok Kwon and Eunok Jung
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Youngsuk Ko: Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
Jacob Lee: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hallym University College of Medicine, Chuncheon 24252, Korea
Yeonju Kim: Division of Public Health Emergency Response Research, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju 28159, Korea
Donghyok Kwon: Division of Public Health Emergency Response Research, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju 28159, Korea
Eunok Jung: Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 12, 1-14

Abstract: (1) Background: The vaccine supply is likely to be limited in 2021 due to constraints in manufacturing. To maximize the benefit from the rollout phase, an optimal strategy of vaccine allocation is necessary based on each country’s epidemic status. (2) Methods: We first developed a heterogeneous population model considering the transmission matrix using maximum likelihood estimation based on the epidemiological records of individual COVID-19 cases in the Republic of Korea. Using this model, the vaccine priorities for minimizing mortality or incidence were investigated. (3) Results: The simulation results showed that the optimal vaccine allocation strategy to minimize the mortality (or incidence) was to prioritize elderly and healthcare workers (or adults) as long as the reproductive number was below 1.2 (or over 0.9 ). (4) Conclusion: Our simulation results support the current Korean government vaccination priority strategy, which prioritizes healthcare workers and senior groups to minimize mortality, under the condition that the reproductive number remains below 1.2 . This study revealed that, in order to maintain the current vaccine priority policy, it is important to ensure that the reproductive number does not exceed the threshold by concurrently implementing nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Keywords: mathematical modeling; COVID-19; vaccine priority; reproductive number; maximum likelihood estimation; healthcare worker (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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