Nine Months of COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: A Comparative Time Series Analysis of Cases and Fatalities in 35 Countries

David Meintrup, Martina Nowak-Machen and Stefan Borgmann
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David Meintrup: Faculty of Engineering and Management, University of Applied Sciences Ingolstadt, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany
Martina Nowak-Machen: Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine, Ingolstadt Hospital, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany
Stefan Borgmann: Department of Infectious Diseases and Infection Control, Ingolstadt Hospital, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 12, 1-17

Abstract: (1) Background: to describe the dynamic of the pandemic across 35 European countries over a period of 9 months. (2) Methods: a three-phase time series model was fitted for 35 European countries, predicting deaths based on SARS-CoV-2 incidences. Hierarchical clustering resulted in three clusters of countries. A multiple regression model was developed predicting thresholds for COVID-19 incidences, coupled to death numbers. (3) Results: The model showed strongly connected deaths and incidences during the waves in spring and fall. The corrected case-fatality rates ranged from 2% to 20.7% in the first wave, and from 0.5% to 4.2% in the second wave. If the incidences stay below a threshold, predicted by the regression model ( R 2 = 85.0 % ), COVID-19 related deaths and incidences were not necessarily coupled. The clusters represented different regions in Europe, and the corrected case-fatality rates in each cluster flipped from high to low or vice versa. Severely and less severely affected countries flipped between the first and second wave. (4) Conclusions: COVID-19 incidences and related deaths were uncoupled during the summer but coupled during two waves. Once a country-specific threshold of infections is reached, death numbers will start to rise, allowing health care systems and countries to prepare.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; corrected case fatality rate; time series analysis; multiple regression; flip effect; death threshold (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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