Mixed POT-BM Approach for Modeling Unhealthy Air Pollution Events

Nurulkamal Masseran and Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari
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Nurulkamal Masseran: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, UKM, Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia
Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Putra Malaysia, UPM, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-17

Abstract: This article proposes a novel data selection technique called the mixed peak-over-threshold–block-maxima (POT-BM) approach for modeling unhealthy air pollution events. The POT technique is employed to obtain a group of blocks containing data points satisfying extreme-event criteria that are greater than a particular threshold u . The selected groups are defined as POT blocks. In parallel with that, a declustering technique is used to overcome the problem of dependency behaviors that occurs among adjacent POT blocks. Finally, the BM concept is integrated to determine the maximum data points for each POT block. Results show that the extreme data points determined by the mixed POT-BM approach satisfy the independent properties of extreme events, with satisfactory fitted model precision results. Overall, this study concludes that the mixed POT-BM approach provides a balanced tradeoff between bias and variance in the statistical modeling of extreme-value events. A case study was conducted by modeling an extreme event based on unhealthy air pollution events with a threshold u > 100 in Klang, Malaysia.

Keywords: air pollution modeling; environmetrics; pollution risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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