Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

Sungbo Shim, Hyunmin Sung, Sanghoon Kwon, Jisun Kim, Jaehee Lee, Minah Sun, Jaeyoung Song, Jongchul Ha, Younghwa Byun, Yeonhee Kim, Steven T. Turnock, David S. Stevenson, Robert J. Allen, Fiona M. O’Connor, Joao C. Teixeira, Jonny Williams, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jane Mulcahy and Guang Zeng
Additional contact information
Sungbo Shim: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Hyunmin Sung: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Sanghoon Kwon: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Jisun Kim: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Jaehee Lee: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Minah Sun: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Jaeyoung Song: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Jongchul Ha: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Younghwa Byun: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Yeonhee Kim: Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea
Steven T. Turnock: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
David S. Stevenson: School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK
Robert J. Allen: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, USA
Fiona M. O’Connor: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Joao C. Teixeira: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Jonny Williams: National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand
Ben Johnson: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
James Keeble: Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
Jane Mulcahy: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Guang Zeng: National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-17

Abstract: This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM 2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM 2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM 2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM 2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM 2.5 , it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.

Keywords: CMIP6; SSP scenarios; PM 2.5; air quality index; Asia; climate changes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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