Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan

Zhongxiang Chen, Zhiquan Shu, Xiuxiang Huang, Ke Peng and Jiaji Pan
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Zhongxiang Chen: College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Zhiquan Shu: School of Engineering and Technology, University of Washington, Tacoma, WA 98402, USA
Xiuxiang Huang: College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Ke Peng: College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Jiaji Pan: College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-15

Abstract: To assess the effectiveness of the containment strategies proposed in Japan, an SEIAQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-quarantined-recovered) model was established to simulate the transmission of COVID-19. We divided the spread of COVID-19 in Japan into different stages based on policies. The effective reproduction number R e and the transmission parameters were determined to evaluate the measures conducted by the Japanese Government during these periods. On 7 April 2020, the Japanese authority declared a state of emergency to control the rapid development of the pandemic. Based on the simulation results, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan can be inhibited by containment actions during the state of emergency. The effective reproduction number R e reduced from 1.99 (before the state of emergency) to 0.92 (after the state of emergency). The transmission parameters were fitted and characterized with quantifiable variables including the ratio of untracked cases, the PCR test index and the proportion of COCOA app users (official contact confirming application). The impact of these variables on the control of COVID-19 was investigated in the modelling analysis. On 8 January 2021, the Japanese Government declared another state of emergency. The simulated results demonstrated that the spread could be controlled in May by keeping the same strategies. A higher intensity of PCR testing was suggested, and a larger proportion of COCOA app users should reduce the final number of infections and the time needed to control the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modelling; state of emergency; containment policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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