Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data

Ruut Uusitalo, Mika Siljander, C. Lorna Culverwell, Guy Hendrickx, Andreas Lindén, Timothée Dub, Juha Aalto, Jussi Sane, Cedric Marsboom, Maija T. Suvanto, Andrea Vajda, Hilppa Gregow, Essi M. Korhonen, Eili Huhtamo, Petri Pellikka and Olli Vapalahti
Additional contact information
Ruut Uusitalo: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
Mika Siljander: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
C. Lorna Culverwell: Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
Guy Hendrickx: AVIA-GIS, Risschotlei 33, 2980 Zoersel, Belgium
Andreas Lindén: Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), P.O. Box 2, FI-00791 Helsinki, Finland
Timothée Dub: Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 30, FI-00271 Helsinki, Finland
Juha Aalto: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
Jussi Sane: Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 30, FI-00271 Helsinki, Finland
Cedric Marsboom: AVIA-GIS, Risschotlei 33, 2980 Zoersel, Belgium
Maija T. Suvanto: Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
Andrea Vajda: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Hilppa Gregow: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Essi M. Korhonen: Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
Eili Huhtamo: Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
Petri Pellikka: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
Olli Vapalahti: Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-26

Abstract: Pogosta disease is a mosquito-borne infection, caused by Sindbis virus (SINV), which causes epidemics of febrile rash and arthritis in Northern Europe and South Africa. Resident grouse and migratory birds play a significant role as amplifying hosts and various mosquito species, including Aedes cinereus , Culex pipiens , Cx. torrentium and Culiseta morsitans are documented vectors. As specific treatments are not available for SINV infections, and joint symptoms may persist, the public health burden is considerable in endemic areas. To predict the environmental suitability for SINV infections in Finland, we applied a suite of geospatial and statistical modeling techniques to disease occurrence data. Using an ensemble approach, we first produced environmental suitability maps for potential SINV vectors in Finland. These suitability maps were then combined with grouse densities and environmental data to identify the influential determinants for SINV infections and to predict the risk of Pogosta disease in Finnish municipalities. Our predictions suggest that both the environmental suitability for vectors and the high risk of Pogosta disease are focused in geographically restricted areas. This provides evidence that the presence of both SINV vector species and grouse densities can predict the occurrence of the disease. The results support material for public-health officials when determining area-specific recommendations and deliver information to health care personnel to raise awareness of the disease among physicians.

Keywords: Pogosta disease; vector-borne disease; Sindbis virus infection; mosquitoes; predictive mapping; disease modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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