Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Influenza-Like Illness and Prediction of Incidence in High-Risk Regions in the United States from 2011 to 2020

Zhijuan Song, Xiaocan Jia, Junzhe Bao, Yongli Yang, Huili Zhu and Xuezhong Shi
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Zhijuan Song: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Xiaocan Jia: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Junzhe Bao: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Yongli Yang: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Huili Zhu: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Xuezhong Shi: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-14

Abstract: About 8% of the Americans contract influenza during an average season according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. It is necessary to strengthen the early warning for influenza and the prediction of public health. In this study, Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial scanning analysis were used to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of influenza-like illness (ILI) prevalence in the United States, during the 2011–2020 transmission seasons. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was constructed to predict the influenza incidence of high-risk states. We found the highest incidence of ILI was mainly concentrated in the states of Louisiana, District of Columbia and Virginia. Mississippi was a high-risk state with a higher influenza incidence, and exhibited a high-high cluster with neighboring states. A SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0) 52 model was suitable for forecasting the ILI incidence of Mississippi. The relative errors between actual values and predicted values indicated that the predicted values matched the actual values well. Influenza is still an important health problem in the United States. The spread of ILI varies by season and geographical region. The peak season of influenza was the winter and spring, and the states with higher influenza rates are concentrated in the southeast. Increased surveillance in high-risk states could help control the spread of the influenza.

Keywords: influenza-like illness; spatiotemporal analysis; SARIMA model; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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