Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models

Ryan H. L. Ip, Dmitry Demskoi, Azizur Rahman and Lihong Zheng
Additional contact information
Ryan H. L. Ip: School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
Dmitry Demskoi: School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
Azizur Rahman: School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
Lihong Zheng: School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-17

Abstract: In handling the COVID-19 pandemic, various mitigation policies aiming at slowing the spread and protecting all individuals, especially the vulnerable ones, were implemented. A careful evaluation of the effectiveness of these policies is necessary so that policy-makers can implement informed decisions if another wave of COVID-19 or another pandemic happens in the future. This paper reports an assessment of some policies introduced by the Australian governments using a generalised space-time autoregressive model which incorporates multiple exogenous variables and delay effects. Our results show that the number of daily new cases from the states and territories are influenced by both temporal and spatial aspects. Business and border restrictions are found helpful in reducing the number of new cases a few days after implementation while gathering restrictions may not be effective.

Keywords: delay effects; feasible GLS; GSTARX; multiple interventions; policy evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/14/7474/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/14/7474/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:14:p:7474-:d:593527

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().