Reopening International Borders without Quarantine: Contact Tracing Integrated Policy against COVID-19

Zidong Yu, Xiaolin Zhu, Xintao Liu, Tao Wei, Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Yang Xu, Rui Zhu, Huan He, Hui Wang, Man Sing Wong, Peng Jia, Song Guo, Wenzhong Shi and Wu Chen
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Zidong Yu: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Xiaolin Zhu: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Xintao Liu: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Tao Wei: School of Psychology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
Hsiang-Yu Yuan: Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Yang Xu: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Rui Zhu: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Huan He: School of Public Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China
Hui Wang: Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA
Man Sing Wong: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Peng Jia: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Song Guo: Department of Computing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Wenzhong Shi: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Wu Chen: Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-13

Abstract: With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quarantines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7–12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.

Keywords: COVID-19; border reopening; digital contact tracing; international travel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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