Development and Comparison of Dengue Vulnerability Indices Using GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Lao PDR and Thailand

Sumaira Zafar, Oleg Shipin, Richard E. Paul, Joacim Rocklöv, Ubydul Haque, Md. Siddikur Rahman, Mayfong Mayxay, Chamsai Pientong, Sirinart Aromseree, Petchaboon Poolphol, Tiengkham Pongvongsa, Nanthasane Vannavong and Hans J. Overgaard
Additional contact information
Sumaira Zafar: Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology; Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
Oleg Shipin: Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology; Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
Richard E. Paul: Unité de la Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies Infectieuses, Institut Pasteur, CNRS UMR 2000, 75015 Paris, France
Joacim Rocklöv: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden
Ubydul Haque: Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, North Texas, Fort Worth, TX 76107, USA
Md. Siddikur Rahman: Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand
Mayfong Mayxay: Institute of Research and Education Development (IRED), University of Health Sciences, Ministry of Health, Vientiane 43130, Laos
Chamsai Pientong: Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand
Sirinart Aromseree: Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand
Petchaboon Poolphol: The Office of Disease Prevention and Control Region 10(th), Ubon Ratchathani 34000, Thailand
Tiengkham Pongvongsa: Savannakhet Provincial Health Department, Savannakhet 13000, Laos
Nanthasane Vannavong: Champasak Provincial Health Office, Pakse 1600, Laos
Hans J. Overgaard: Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 17, 1-25

Abstract: Dengue is a continuous health burden in Laos and Thailand. We assessed and mapped dengue vulnerability in selected provinces of Laos and Thailand using multi-criteria decision approaches. An ecohealth framework was used to develop dengue vulnerability indices (DVIs) that explain links between population, social and physical environments, and health to identify exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity indicators. Three DVIs were constructed using two objective approaches, Shannon’s Entropy (SE) and the Water-Associated Disease Index (WADI), and one subjective approach, the Best-Worst Method (BWM). Each DVI was validated by correlating the index score with dengue incidence for each spatial unit (district and subdistrict) over time. A Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) larger than 0.5 and a p -value less than 0.05 implied a good spatial and temporal performance. Spatially, DVI WADI was significantly correlated on average in 19% (4–40%) of districts in Laos (mean r = 0.5) and 27% (15–53%) of subdistricts in Thailand (mean r = 0.85). The DVI SE was validated in 22% (12–40%) of districts in Laos and in 13% (3–38%) of subdistricts in Thailand. The DVI BWM was only developed for Laos because of lack of data in Thailand and was significantly associated with dengue incidence on average in 14% (0–28%) of Lao districts. The DVI WADI indicated high vulnerability in urban centers and in areas with plantations and forests. In 2019, high DVI WADI values were observed in sparsely populated areas due to elevated exposure, possibly from changes in climate and land cover, including urbanization, plantations, and dam construction. Of the three indices, DVI WADI was the most suitable vulnerability index for the study area. The DVI WADI can also be applied to other water-associated diseases, such as Zika and chikungunya, to highlight priority areas for further investigation and as a tool for prevention and interventions.

Keywords: exposure; epidemiology; health status indicators; spatial analysis; susceptibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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