Public Protests and the Risk of Novel Coronavirus Disease Hospitalizations: A County-Level Analysis from California

Linh N. Bui, Rachel L. Berkowitz, Wendy Jilek, Andrew J. Bordner, Kristen M. J. Azar, Alice Pressman and Robert J. Romanelli
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Linh N. Bui: Department of Nursing, School of Natural Sciences, Mathematics, and Engineering, California State University, Bakersfield, CA 93311, USA
Rachel L. Berkowitz: Institute for Advancing Health Equity, Sutter Health, Palo Alto, CA 94301, USA
Wendy Jilek: Health Services Advisory Group, Phoenix, AZ 85016, USA
Andrew J. Bordner: Design & Innovation, Sutter Health, San Carlos, CA 94070, USA
Kristen M. J. Azar: Institute for Advancing Health Equity, Sutter Health, Palo Alto, CA 94301, USA
Alice Pressman: Institute for Advancing Health Equity, Sutter Health, Palo Alto, CA 94301, USA
Robert J. Romanelli: Institute for Advancing Health Equity, Sutter Health, Palo Alto, CA 94301, USA

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-15

Abstract: The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between public protests and county-level, novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalization rates across California. Publicly available data were included in the analysis from 55 of 58 California state counties (29 March–14 October 2020). Mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between daily county-level COVID-19 hospitalizations and two main exposure variables: any vs. no protests and 1 or >1 protest vs. no protests on a given county-day. COVID-19 hospitalizations were used as a proxy for viral transmission since such rates are less sensitive to temporal changes in testing access/availability. Models included covariates for daily county mobility, county-level characteristics, and time trends. Models also included a county-population offset and a two-week lag for the association between exposure and outcome. No significant associations were observed between protest exposures and COVID-19 hospitalization rates among the 55 counties. We did not find evidence to suggest that public protests were associated with COVID-19 hospitalization within California counties. These findings support the notion that protesting during a pandemic may be safe, ostensibly, so long as evidence-based precautionary measures are taken.

Keywords: novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalization; public protests; California; mixed-effects models; county-level (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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