A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions

Leon Diniz Alves, Raquel Martins Lana and Flávio Codeço Coelho
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Leon Diniz Alves: Centro Federal Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro 20271-110, Brazil
Raquel Martins Lana: Scientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil
Flávio Codeço Coelho: School of Applied Mathematics, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 22250-900, Brazil

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-16

Abstract: This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector’s egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.

Keywords: dengue; transmission model; Aedes aegypti; environment variables; tropical diseases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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