Recurrence and Driving Factors of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Central China

Yingze Zhao, Dong Jiang, Fangyu Ding, Mengmeng Hao, Qian Wang, Shuai Chen, Xiaolan Xie, Canjun Zheng and Tian Ma
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Yingze Zhao: National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Beijing 102206, China
Dong Jiang: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Fangyu Ding: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Mengmeng Hao: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Qian Wang: Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Shuai Chen: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Xiaolan Xie: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Canjun Zheng: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Beijing 102206, China
Tian Ma: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-14

Abstract: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important vector-borne zoonosis caused by Leishmania spp. that has been spreading in China. It has been posing a significant risk to public health in central China due to its recurrence in recent decades. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns and the driving factors of VL in central China remain unclear at present. The purpose of this study was to analyse spatiotemporal distribution, explore driving factors, and provide novel insight into prevention and control countermeasures of the VL spreading in central China. Based on data of human VL cases from 2006 to 2019 obtained from the Chinese Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we depicted the map showing the spatiotemporal distribution of VL in central China. We further explored the driving factors contributing to the spread of VL through the general additive model (GAM) by combining maps of environmental, meteorological, and socioeconomic correlates. Most VL cases were reported in Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, the number of which has been increasing every year in the last 14 years, from 3 new cases in 2006 to 101 new cases in 2019. The results of GAM revealed that environmental (i.e., changes in grasslands/forests), meteorological (i.e., temperature and relative humidity), and socioeconomic (i.e., population density) factors are significantly associated with the prevalence of VL in central China. Our results provide a better understanding regarding the current situation and the driving factors of VL in central China, assisting in developing the disease prevention and control strategies implemented by public health authorities.

Keywords: visceral leishmaniasis; spatiotemporal distribution; recurrence; driving factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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