Analyzing Spatial Dependency of the 2016–2017 Korean HPAI Outbreak to Determine the Effective Culling Radius

Kwideok Han, Meilan An and Inbae Ji
Additional contact information
Kwideok Han: Department of Institutional Research and Analytics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
Meilan An: Department of Food Industrial Management, Dongguk University, Jung-gu, Seoul 04620, Korea
Inbae Ji: Department of Food Industrial Management, Dongguk University, Jung-gu, Seoul 04620, Korea

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-12

Abstract: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are a threat to human health and cause extremely large financial losses to the poultry industry due to containment measures. Determining the most effective control measures, especially the culling radius, to minimize economic impacts yet contain the spread of HPAI is of great importance. This study examines the factors influencing the probability of a farm being infected with HPAI during the 2016–2017 HPAI outbreak in Korea. Using a spatial random effects logistic model, only a few factors commonly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection were significant. Interestingly, most density-related factors, poultry and farm, were not significantly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection. The effective culling radius was determined to be two ranges: 0.5–2.2 km and 2.7–3.0 km. This suggests that the spatial heterogeneity, due to local characteristics and/or the characteristics of the HPAI virus(es) involved, should be considered to determine the most effective culling radius in each region. These findings will help strengthen biosecurity control measures at the farm level and enable authorities to quickly respond to HPAI outbreaks with effective countermeasures to suppress the spread of HPAI.

Keywords: highly pathogenic avian influenza; HPAI; spatial random effects logistic model; spatial dependency; spatial autocorrelation; effective culling radius (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9643/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9643/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:18:p:9643-:d:634634

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().