Quest for Optimal Regression Models in SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Based Epidemiology

Parisa Aberi, Rezgar Arabzadeh, Heribert Insam, Rudolf Markt, Markus Mayr, Norbert Kreuzinger and Wolfgang Rauch
Additional contact information
Parisa Aberi: Department of Infrastructure, University Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Rezgar Arabzadeh: Department of Infrastructure, University Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Heribert Insam: Department of Microbiology, University Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Rudolf Markt: Department of Microbiology, University Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Markus Mayr: Department of Microbiology, University Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Norbert Kreuzinger: Institute for Water Quality and Resource Management, Technology University Vienna, 1040 Vienna, Austria
Wolfgang Rauch: Department of Infrastructure, University Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 20, 1-17

Abstract: Wastewater-based epidemiology is a recognised source of information for pandemic management. In this study, we investigated the correlation between a SARS-CoV-2 signal derived from wastewater sampling and COVID-19 incidence values monitored by means of individual testing programs. The dataset used in the study is composed of timelines (duration approx. five months) of both signals at four wastewater treatment plants across Austria, two of which drain large communities and the other two drain smaller communities. Eight regression models were investigated to predict the viral incidence under varying data inputs and pre-processing methods. It was found that population-based normalisation and smoothing as a pre-processing of the viral load data significantly influence the fitness of the regression models. Moreover, the time latency lag between the wastewater data and the incidence derived from the testing program was found to vary between 2 and 7 days depending on the time period and site. It was found to be necessary to take such a time lag into account by means of multivariate modelling to boost the performance of the regression. Comparing the models, no outstanding one could be identified as all investigated models are revealing a sufficient correlation for the task. The pre-processing of data and a multivariate model formulation is more important than the model structure.

Keywords: regression; SARS-CoV-2; wastewater-based epidemiology; incidence; multivariate model; Taylor diagram (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/20/10778/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/20/10778/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:20:p:10778-:d:656010

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().