Adiposity and Long-Term Adiposity Change Are Associated with Incident Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study in Southwest China

Yun Chen, Yiying Wang, Kelin Xu, Jie Zhou, Lisha Yu, Na Wang, Tao Liu and Chaowei Fu
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Yun Chen: School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Yiying Wang: Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China
Kelin Xu: School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Jie Zhou: Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China
Lisha Yu: Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China
Na Wang: School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Tao Liu: Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China
Chaowei Fu: School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 21, 1-12

Abstract: In order to estimate the associations of different adiposity indicators and long-term adiposity changes with risk of incident type 2 diabetes (T2DM), we conducted a 10-year prospective cohort study of 7441 adults in Guizhou, China, from 2010 to 2020. Adiposity was measured at baseline and follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). A total of 764 new diabetes cases were identified over an average follow-up of 7.06 years. Adiposity indicators, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and long-term adiposity changes (both weight change and WC change) were significantly associated with an increased risk of T2DM (adjusted HRs: 1.16–1.48). Significant non-linear relationships were found between weight/WC change and incident T2DM. Compared with subjects with stable WC from baseline to follow-up visit, the subjects with WC gain ?9 cm had a 1.61-fold greater risk of T2DM; those with WC loss had a 30% lower risk. Furthermore, the associations were stronger among participants aged 40 years or older, women, and Han Chinese. Preventing weight or WC gain and promoting maintenance of normal body weight or WC are important approaches for diabetes prevention, especially for the elderly, women, and Han Chinese.

Keywords: general obesity; abdominal obesity; long-term adiposity change; type 2 diabetes; cohort study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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