Estimating Economic Losses Caused by COVID-19 under Multiple Control Measure Scenarios with a Coupled Infectious Disease—Economic Model: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

Xingtian Chen, Wei Gong, Xiaoxu Wu and Wenwu Zhao
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Xingtian Chen: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Wei Gong: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Xiaoxu Wu: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Wenwu Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 22, 1-19

Abstract: Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was revised and coupled with an economic model to quantify this nonlinear relationship in Wuhan. The control measures were parameterized into two factors: the effective number of daily contacts (people) ( r ); the average waiting time for quarantined patients (day) ( g ). Results: The parameter r has a threshold value that if r is less than 5 (people), the number of COVID-19 infected patients is very close to 0. A “central valley” around r = 5~6 can be observed, indicating an optimal control measure to reduce economic losses. A lower value of parameter g is beneficial to stop COVID-19 spread with a lower economic cost. Conclusion: The simulation results demonstrate that implementing strict control measures as early as possible can stop the spread of COVID-19 with a minimal economic impact. The quantitative assessment method in this study can be applied in other COVID-19 pandemic areas or countries.

Keywords: COVID-19; infectious diseases model; control measures; economic losses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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