Identification of Policies Based on Assessment-Optimization Model to Confront Vulnerable Resources System with Large Population Scale in a Big City

Xueting Zeng, Hua Xiang, Jia Liu, Yong Xue, Jinxin Zhu and Yuqian Xu
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Xueting Zeng: School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100072, China
Hua Xiang: School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100072, China
Jia Liu: College of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100072, China
Yong Xue: School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100072, China
Jinxin Zhu: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510000, China
Yuqian Xu: Henry M. Gunn High School, Capital University of Economics and Business, 780 Arastradero Rd., Palo Alto, CA 94306, USA

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 24, 1-27

Abstract: The conflict between excessive population development and vulnerable resource (including water, food, and energy resources) capacity influenced by multiple uncertainties can increase the difficulty of decision making in a big city with large population scale. In this study, an adaptive population and water–food–energy (WFE) management framework (APRF) incorporating vulnerability assessment, uncertainty analysis, and systemic optimization methods is developed for optimizing the relationship between population development and WFE management (P-WFE) under combined policies. In the APRF, the vulnerability of WFE was calculated by an entropy-based driver–pressure–state–response (E-DPSR) model to reflect the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability caused by population growth, economic development, and resource governance. Meanwhile, a scenario-based dynamic fuzzy model with Hurwicz criterion (SDFH) is proposed for not only optimizing the relationship of P-WFE with uncertain information expressed as possibility and probability distributions, but also reflecting the risk preference of policymakers with an elected manner. The developed APRF is applied to a real case study of Beijing city, which has characteristics of a large population scale and resource deficit. The results of WFE shortages and population adjustments were obtained to identify an optimized P-WEF plan under various policies, to support the adjustment of the current policy in Beijing city. Meanwhile, the results associated with resource vulnerability and benefit analysis were analyzed for improving the robustness of policy generation.

Keywords: population–resource management framework; vulnerability assessment; two-stage dynamic fuzzy programming with Hurwicz criterion; policy scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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