Sustainable Land-Use Allocation Model at a Watershed Level under Uncertainty

Yao Lu, Min Zhou, Guoliang Ou, Zuo Zhang, Li He, Yuxiang Ma, Chaonan Ma, Jiating Tu and Siqi Li
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Yao Lu: College of Marxism, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China
Min Zhou: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
Guoliang Ou: School of Construction and Environmental Engineering, Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen 518055, China
Zuo Zhang: School of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
Li He: School of Urban Construction, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434023, China
Yuxiang Ma: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
Chaonan Ma: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
Jiating Tu: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
Siqi Li: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 24, 1-19

Abstract: Land-use allocation models can effectively support sustainable land use. A large number of studies solve the problems of land-use planning by constructing models, such as mathematical models and spatial analysis models. However, these models fail to fully and comprehensively consider three uncertain factors of land-use systems: randomness, interval and fuzziness. 33Therefore, through the study of the watershed land-use system, this paper develops a land-use allocation model considering the regional land–society–economy–environment system under uncertain conditions. On the basis of this model, an interval fuzzy two-stage random land-use allocation model (IFTSP-LUAM) combining social, economic and ecological factors is proposed to provide sustainable development strategies at the basin level. In addition, the proposed IFTSP-LUAM takes into account the above three uncertainties and multistage, multiobjective, dynamic, systematic and complex characteristics of typical land-use planning systems. The results showed that the model considers more socioeconomic and ecological factors and can effectively reflect the quantitative relationship between the increase in economic benefits and the decrease in environmental costs of a land-use system. The model was applied to land-use planning of Nansihu River Basin in Shandong Province. The results provided a series of suitable land-use patterns and environmental emission scenarios under uncertain conditions, which can help the watershed environmental protection bureau and watershed land-use decision-makers to formulate appropriate land-use policies, so as to balance social and economic development and ecological protection. The simulation results can provide support for an in-depth analysis of land-use patterns and the trade-off between economic development and ecological environment protection.

Keywords: sustainable land use; ecological environment protection; interval fuzzy two-stage stochastic model; South Four Lake watershed; eco-environmental constraints (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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