Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050

Luoman Pu, Jiuchun Yang, Lingxue Yu, Changsheng Xiong, Fengqin Yan, Yubo Zhang and Shuwen Zhang
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Luoman Pu: School of Politics and Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Jiuchun Yang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Lingxue Yu: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Changsheng Xiong: School of Politics and Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Fengqin Yan: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Yubo Zhang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Shuwen Zhang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-21

Abstract: Crop potential yields in cropland are the essential reflection of the utilization of cropland resources. The changes of the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of cropland will directly affect the crop potential yields, so it is very crucial to simulate future cropland distribution and predict crop potential yields to ensure the future food security. In the present study, the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was employed to simulate land-use changes in Northeast China during 2015–2050. Then, the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was used to predict maize potential yields in Northeast China in 2050, and the spatio-temporal changes of maize potential yields during 2015–2050 were explored. The results were the following. (1) The woodland and grassland decreased by 5.13 million ha and 1.74 million ha respectively in Northeast China from 2015 to 2050, which were mainly converted into unused land. Most of the dryland was converted to paddy field and built-up land. (2) In 2050, the total maize potential production and average potential yield in Northeast China were 218.09 million tonnes and 6880.59 kg/ha. Thirteen prefecture-level cities had maize potential production of more than 7 million tonnes, and 11 cities had maize potential yields of more than 8000 kg/ha. (3) During 2015–2050, the total maize potential production and average yield decreased by around 23 million tonnes and 700 kg/ha in Northeast China, respectively. (4) The maize potential production increased in 15 cities located in the plain areas over the 35 years. The potential yields increased in only nine cities, which were mainly located in the Sanjiang Plain and the southeastern regions. The results highlight the importance of coping with the future land-use changes actively, maintaining the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, improving the cropland quality, and ensuring food security in Northeast China.

Keywords: CA-Markov model; GAEZ model; land-use changes simulation; maize potential yields; food security; Northeast China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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