The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID-19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective

Yun Li, Moming Li, Megan Rice, Haoyuan Zhang, Dexuan Sha, Mei Li, Yanfang Su and Chaowei Yang
Additional contact information
Yun Li: Department of Geography and GeoInformation Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
Moming Li: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA
Megan Rice: Department of Chemistry, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
Haoyuan Zhang: Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Dexuan Sha: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA
Mei Li: Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Yanfang Su: Department of Global Health, Washington University, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
Chaowei Yang: Department of Geography and GeoInformation Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: Social distancing policies have been regarded as effective in containing the rapid spread of COVID-19. However, there is a limited understanding of policy effectiveness from a spatiotemporal perspective. This study integrates geographical, demographical, and other key factors into a regression-based event study framework, to assess the effectiveness of seven major policies on human mobility and COVID-19 case growth rates, with a spatiotemporal emphasis. Our results demonstrate that stay-at-home orders, workplace closures, and public information campaigns were effective in decreasing the confirmed case growth rate. For stay-at-home orders and workplace closures, these changes were associated with significant decreases ( p < 0.05) in mobility. Public information campaigns did not see these same mobility trends, but the growth rate still decreased significantly in all analysis periods ( p < 0.01). Stay-at-home orders and international/national travel controls had limited mitigation effects on the death case growth rate ( p < 0.1). The relationships between policies, mobility, and epidemiological metrics allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of each policy and gave us insight into the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms by which these measures work. Our analysis will provide policymakers with better knowledge regarding the effectiveness of measures in space–time disaggregation.

Keywords: social distancing measures; COVID-19; event study; panel data; policy analysis; mobility; mortality; spatiotemporal; heterogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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