A Novel Score for Predicting Alzheimer’s Disease Risk from Late Life Psychopathological and Health Risk Factors

Javier Santabárbara, Juan Bueno-Notivol, Darren M. Lipnicki, Concepción de la Cámara, Raúl López-Antón, Antonio Lobo and Patricia Gracia-García
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Javier Santabárbara: Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universidad de Zaragoza, 50001 Zaragoza, Spain
Juan Bueno-Notivol: Psychiatry Service, Hospital Universitario Miguel Servet, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain
Darren M. Lipnicki: Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing, School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales Medicine, 2052 Randwick, Australia
Concepción de la Cámara: Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Aragón (IIS Aragón), 50001 Zaragoza, Spain
Raúl López-Antón: Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Aragón (IIS Aragón), 50001 Zaragoza, Spain
Antonio Lobo: Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Aragón (IIS Aragón), 50001 Zaragoza, Spain
Patricia Gracia-García: Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Aragón (IIS Aragón), 50001 Zaragoza, Spain

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 4, 1-14

Abstract: With the increasing size of the aging population, dementia risk reduction has become a main public health concern. Dementia risk models or indices may help to identify individuals in the community at high risk to develop dementia. We have aimed to develop a novel dementia risk index focused on the late-life (65 years or more) population, that addresses risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) easily identifiable at primary care settings. These risk factors include some shown to be associated with the risk of AD but not featured in existing indices, such as hearing loss and anxiety. Our index is also the first to account for the competing risk of death. The Zaragoza Dementia and Depression Project (ZARADEMP) Alzheimer Dementia Risk Score predicts an individual´s risk of developing AD within 5 years. The probability of late onset AD significantly increases in those with risk scores between 21 and 28 and, furthermore, is almost 4-fold higher for those with risk scores of 29 or higher. Our index may provide a practical instrument to identify subjects at high risk of AD and to design preventive strategies targeting the contributing risk factors.

Keywords: risk index; dementia; psychopathological risk factors; ZARADEMP; competing risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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