Exploring Factors Influencing Scenarios Evolution of Waste NIMBY Crisis: Analysis of Typical Cases in China

Ling He, Qing Yang, Xingxing Liu, Lingmei Fu and Jinmei Wang
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Ling He: School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Qing Yang: School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Xingxing Liu: School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Lingmei Fu: School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Jinmei Wang: School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: As the impact factors of the waste Not-In-My-Back Yard (NIMBY) crisis are complex, and the scenario evolution path of it is diverse. Once the crisis is not handled properly, it will bring adverse effects on the construction of waste NIMBY facilities, economic development and social stability. Consequently, based on ground theory, this paper takes the waste NIMBY crisis in China from 2006 to 2019 as typical cases, through coding analysis, scenario evolution factors of waste NIMBY crisis are established. Furtherly, three key scenarios were obtained, namely, external situation (E), situation state (S), emergency management (M), what is more, scenario evolution law of waste NIMBY crisis is revealed. Then, the dynamic Bayesian network theory is used to construct the dynamic scenario evolution network of waste NIMBY crisis. Finally, based on the above models, Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is taken as a case study, and the dynamic process of scenario evolution network is visually displayed by using Netica. The simulation results show that the scenario evolution network of Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is basically consistent with the actual incident development process, which confirms the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

Keywords: waste NIMBY crisis; ground theory; dynamic Bayesian network; scenario evolution; probability analysis; node variables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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