The Impact of Health Policies and Sociodemographic Factors on Doubling Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico

Lina Díaz-Castro, Héctor Cabello-Rangel and Kurt Hoffman
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Lina Díaz-Castro: Direction of Epidemiological and Psychosocial Research, National Institute of Psychiatry Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz, Mexico City 14370, Mexico
Héctor Cabello-Rangel: Diagnostic Auxiliary Division, Psychiatric Hospital Fray Bernardino Álvarez, Mexico City 14000, Mexico
Kurt Hoffman: Research Center in Animal Reproduction, Autonomous University of Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala 90000, Mexico

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 5, 1-13

Abstract: Background . The doubling time is the best indicator of the course of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the present investigation was to determine the impact of policies and several sociodemographic factors on the COVID-19 doubling time in Mexico. Methods . A retrospective longitudinal study was carried out across March–August, 2020. Policies issued by each of the 32 Mexican states during each week of this period were classified according to the University of Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases was calculated. Additionally, variables such as population size and density, poverty and mobility were included. A panel data model was applied to measure the effect of these variables on doubling time. Results . States with larger population sizes issued a larger number of policies. Delay in the issuance of policies was associated with accelerated propagation. The policy index (coefficient 0.60, p < 0.01) and the income per capita (coefficient 3.36, p < 0.01) had a positive effect on doubling time; by contrast, the population density (coefficient ?0.012, p < 0.05), the mobility in parks (coefficient ?1.10, p < 0.01) and the residential mobility (coefficient ?4.14, p < 0.01) had a negative effect. Conclusions . Health policies had an effect on slowing the pandemic’s propagation, but population density and mobility played a fundamental role. Therefore, it is necessary to implement policies that consider these variables.

Keywords: health policy; SARS-CoV-2; doubling time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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