Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Rural Settlements in Low Hilly Region—A Case Study of 17 Cities in Hubei Province, China

Shukui Tan, Maomao Zhang, Ao Wang and Qianlin Ni
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Shukui Tan: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430079, China
Maomao Zhang: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430079, China
Ao Wang: School of Civil Engineering, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China
Qianlin Ni: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430079, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: With the rapid development of the social economy, factors of social and economic development in China’s rural areas have been continuously reorganized, and the pattern and distribution of rural residential areas have undergone significant changes. In rural areas, there have been many peculiar phenomena of “reducing people but not reducing land in rural areas, which has caused tremendous pressure on land resource protection. We used geographic detectors and a geographically temporally weighted regression model (GTWR) to explore the rural settlements’ evolution and driving mechanism in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2015. The results show that the kernel density of rural settlements decreased from 1.62 villages/km 2 in 1990 to 1.60 villages/km 2 in 2015. The scale of rural residential patches has obvious regional differentiation characteristics. From southeast to northwest, there is a wave-like distribution structure of “high-low-high-low-high”, and the clustering characteristics of “cold and hot spots” are strengthened with time. Based on GTWR analysis, the total rural population, total power of agricultural machinery, and rural electricity consumption have promoted the expansion of rural settlements, with the regression coefficients 0.096, 0.484, and 0.878, respectively. Cultivated land, agricultural output value, and rural labor force have negative impacts on the expansion, the regression coefficients of the village were ?0.584, ?0.510, and ?0.109, respectively.

Keywords: rural settlements; spatio-temporal evolution; driving forces; geographic detectors; geographically temporally weighted regression model (GTWR); Hubei Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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