Pattern Recognition of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Implications for Disease Mitigation

Jianyong Wu and Shuying Sha
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Jianyong Wu: Data Explorer LLC, Chapel Hill, NC 27514, USA
Shuying Sha: School of Nursing, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 5, 1-12

Abstract: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic presents a severe threat to human health worldwide. The United States (US) has the highest number of reported COVID-19 cases, and over 16 million people were infected up to the 12 December 2020. To better understand and mitigate the spread of the disease, it is necessary to recognize the pattern of the outbreak. In this study, we explored the patterns of COVID-19 cases in the US from 1 March to 12 December 2020. The county-level cases and rates of the disease were mapped using a geographic information system (GIS). The overall trend of the disease in the US, as well as in each of its 50 individual states, were analyzed by the seasonal-trend decomposition. The disease curve in each state was further examined using K-means clustering and principal component analysis (PCA). The results showed that three clusters were observed in the early phase (1 March–31 May). New York has a unique pattern of the disease curve and was assigned one cluster alone. Two clusters were observed in the middle phase (1 June–30 September). California, Texas and Florida were assigned in the same cluster, which has the pattern different from the remaining states. In the late phase (1 October–12 December), California has a unique pattern of the disease curve and was assigned a cluster alone. In the whole period, three clusters were observed. California, Texas and Florida still have similar patterns and were assigned in the same cluster. The trend analysis consolidated the patterns identified from the cluster analysis. The results from this study provide insight in making disease control and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: coronavirus; machine learning; K-means clustering; seasonal-trend decomposition; spatial pattern (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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