Reduction of Human Mobility Matters during Early COVID-19 Outbreaks: Evidence from India, Japan and China

Zhehao Ren, Ruiyun Li, Tao Zhang, Bin Chen, Che Wang, Miao Li, Shuang Song, Yixiong Xiao, Bo Xu, Zhaoyang Liu, Chong Shen, Dabo Guan, Lin Hou, Ke Deng, Yuqi Bai, Peng Gong and Bing Xu
Additional contact information
Zhehao Ren: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Ruiyun Li: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
Tao Zhang: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Bin Chen: Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Che Wang: Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Miao Li: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Shuang Song: Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Yixiong Xiao: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Bo Xu: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Zhaoyang Liu: Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Chong Shen: Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Dabo Guan: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Lin Hou: Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Ke Deng: Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Yuqi Bai: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Peng Gong: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Bing Xu: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: Mobility restrictions have been a heated topic during the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, multiple recent findings have verified its importance in blocking virus spread. Evidence on the association between mobility, cases imported from abroad and local medical resource supplies is limited. To reveal the association, this study quantified the importance of inter- and intra-country mobility in containing virus spread and avoiding hospitalizations during early stages of COVID-19 outbreaks in India, Japan, and China. We calculated the time-varying reproductive number ( R t ) and duration from illness onset to diagnosis confirmation ( D oc ), to represent conditions of virus spread and hospital bed shortages, respectively. Results showed that inter-country mobility fluctuation could explain 80%, 35%, and 12% of the variance in imported cases and could prevent 20 million, 5 million, and 40 million imported cases in India, Japan and China, respectively. The critical time for screening and monitoring of imported cases is 2 weeks at minimum and 4 weeks at maximum, according to the time when the Pearson’s Rs between R t and imported cases reaches a peak (>0.8). We also found that if local transmission is initiated, a 1% increase in intra-country mobility would result in 1430 (±501), 109 (±181), and 10 (±1) additional bed shortages, as estimated using the D oc in India, Japan, and China, respectively. Our findings provide vital reference for governments to tailor their pre-vaccination policies regarding mobility, especially during future epidemic waves of COVID-19 or similar severe epidemic outbreaks.

Keywords: human mobility; reproductive number; imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); hospital bed shortage; duration from COVID-19 onset to diagnosis confirmation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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