Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia

Kamarul Imran Musa, Wan Nor Arifin, Mohd Hafiz Mohd, Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin, Noor Atinah Ahmad, Xin Wee Chen, Tengku Muhammad Hanis and Awang Bulgiba
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Kamarul Imran Musa: School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, USM, Kubang Kerian, Kelantan 16150, Malaysia
Wan Nor Arifin: School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, USM, Kubang Kerian, Kelantan 16150, Malaysia
Mohd Hafiz Mohd: School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, USM, Penang 11800, Malaysia
Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin: School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, USM, Penang 11800, Malaysia
Noor Atinah Ahmad: School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, USM, Penang 11800, Malaysia
Xin Wee Chen: Faculty of Medicine, Sungai Buloh Campus, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Sungai Buloh, Selangor 47000, Malaysia
Tengku Muhammad Hanis: School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, USM, Kubang Kerian, Kelantan 16150, Malaysia
Awang Bulgiba: Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 6, 1-13

Abstract: To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number ( Rt ). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt . Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level ( Rt value less than one).

Keywords: reproduction number; COVID-19; movement control order; epidemic curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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