Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China

Zhengxin Ji, Hejie Wei, Dong Xue, Mengxue Liu, Enxiang Cai, Weiqiang Chen, Xinwei Feng, Jiwei Li, Jie Lu and Yulong Guo
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Zhengxin Ji: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Hejie Wei: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Dong Xue: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Mengxue Liu: Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Enxiang Cai: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Weiqiang Chen: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Xinwei Feng: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Jiwei Li: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Jie Lu: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Yulong Guo: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.

Keywords: ecosystem service value; land use change; scenario simulation; trade-offs and synergies; rapidly urbanized area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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