The Role of Conspiracy Theories in the Spread of COVID-19 across the United States

Fu Gu, Yingwen Wu, Xinyu Hu, Jianfeng Guo, Xiaohan Yang and Xinze Zhao
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Fu Gu: Center of Engineering Management, Polytechnic Institute, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Yingwen Wu: Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Xinyu Hu: Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Jianfeng Guo: Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Xiaohan Yang: Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Xinze Zhao: Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 7, 1-14

Abstract: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) inspires various conspiracy theories, which could divert public attention, alter human behaviors, and consequently affect the spread of the pandemic. Here we estimate the relation of the online attention on COVID-19-related conspiracy theories to human mobility, as well as to the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases, during 14 March 2020 to 28 August 2020. We observe that the online attention to COVID-19 conspiracy theories is significantly and negatively related to human mobility, but its negative impact is noticeably less than those of the attention to official information and personal protection measures. Since human mobility significantly promotes the spread of COVID-19, the attention to official information and personal protection measures lowers COVID-19 cases by 16.16% and 9.41%, respectively, while attention to conspiracy theories only reduces the COVID-19 cases by 6.65%. In addition, we find that in the states with higher online attention to COVID-19 conspiracy theories, the negative relation of the attention to conspiracy theories is much weaker than that in states where there is less concern about conspiracies. This study stresses the necessity of restricting the online transmission of unfounded conspiracy theories during a pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; conspiracy theory; human mobility; mediation analysis; official information; personal protection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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