Impact of Meteorological Conditions on the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poland

Bogdan Bochenek, Mateusz Jankowski, Marta Gruszczynska, Grzegorz Nykiel, Maciej Gruszczynski, Adam Jaczewski, Michal Ziemianski, Robert Pyrc, Mariusz Figurski and Jarosław Pinkas
Additional contact information
Bogdan Bochenek: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Mateusz Jankowski: Centre of Postgraduate Medical Education, School of Public Health, 01-826 Warsaw, Poland
Marta Gruszczynska: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Grzegorz Nykiel: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Maciej Gruszczynski: Central Office of Measures, Time and Frequency Laboratory, 00-137 Warsaw, Poland
Adam Jaczewski: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Michal Ziemianski: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Robert Pyrc: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Mariusz Figurski: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Jarosław Pinkas: Centre of Postgraduate Medical Education, School of Public Health, 01-826 Warsaw, Poland

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 8, 1-13

Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The role of environmental factors in COVID-19 transmission is unclear. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed) and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Data on a daily number of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and the number of COVID-19-related deaths were gatheredfrom the official governmental website. Meteorological observations from 55 synoptic stations in Poland were used. Moreover, reports on the movement of people across different categories of places were collected. A cross-correlation function, principal component analysis and random forest were applied. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration, relative humidity and variability of mean daily temperature affected the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. An increase intemperature and sunshine hours decreased the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The occurrence of high humidity caused an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases 14 days later. Decreased sunshine duration and increased air humidity had a negative impact on the number of COVID-19-related deaths. Our study provides information that may be used by policymakers to support the decision-making process in nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; temperature; relative humidity; sunshine; transmission; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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