Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in Korea: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Yongin Choi, James Slghee Kim, Jung Eun Kim, Heejin Choi and Chang Hyeong Lee
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Yongin Choi: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea
James Slghee Kim: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea
Jung Eun Kim: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea
Heejin Choi: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea
Chang Hyeong Lee: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 8, 1-19

Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has recently started worldwide. As the vaccine supply will be limited for a considerable period of time in many countries, it is important to devise the effective vaccination strategies that reduce the number of deaths and incidence of infection. One of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that the symptom, severity, and mortality of the disease differ by age. Thus, when the vaccination supply is limited, age-dependent vaccination priority strategy should be implemented to minimize the incidences and mortalities. In this study, we developed an age-structured model for describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, including vaccination. Using the model and actual epidemiological data in Korea, we estimated the infection probability for each age group under different levels of social distancing implemented in Korea and investigated the effective age-dependent vaccination strategies to reduce the confirmed cases and fatalities of COVID-19. We found that, in a lower level of social distancing, vaccination priority for the age groups with the highest transmission rates will reduce the incidence mostly, but, in higher levels of social distancing, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly age group reduces the infection incidences more effectively. To reduce mortalities, vaccination priority for the elderly age group is the best strategy in all scenarios of levels of social distancing. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of vaccine supply and efficacy on the reduction in incidence and mortality.

Keywords: COVID-19; vaccination priority strategy; mathematical modeling; social distancing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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