Understanding the Challenges and Uncertainties of Seroprevalence Studies for SARS-CoV-2

David McConnell, Conor Hickey, Norma Bargary, Lea Trela-Larsen, Cathal Walsh, Michael Barry and Roisin Adams
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David McConnell: National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, St James’s Hospital, D08 HD53 Dublin, Ireland
Conor Hickey: National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, St James’s Hospital, D08 HD53 Dublin, Ireland
Norma Bargary: Health Research Institute and MACSI, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX Limerick, Ireland
Lea Trela-Larsen: National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, St James’s Hospital, D08 HD53 Dublin, Ireland
Cathal Walsh: National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, St James’s Hospital, D08 HD53 Dublin, Ireland
Michael Barry: National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, St James’s Hospital, D08 HD53 Dublin, Ireland
Roisin Adams: National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, St James’s Hospital, D08 HD53 Dublin, Ireland

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 9, 1-19

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 continues to widely circulate in populations globally. Underdetection is acknowledged and is problematic when attempting to capture the true prevalence. Seroprevalence studies, where blood samples from a population sample are tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that react to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, are a common method for estimating the proportion of people previously infected with the virus in a given population. However, obtaining reliable estimates from seroprevalence studies is challenging for a number of reasons, and the uncertainty in the results is often overlooked by scientists, policy makers, and the media. This paper reviews the methodological issues that arise in designing these studies, and the main sources of uncertainty that affect the results. We discuss the choice of study population, recruitment of subjects, uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of antibody tests, and the relationship between antibodies and infection over time. Understanding these issues can help the reader to interpret and critically evaluate the results of seroprevalence studies.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; seroprevalence; antibody testing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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