Relationship of Test Positivity Rates with COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics

Yuki Furuse, Yura K. Ko, Kota Ninomiya, Motoi Suzuki and Hitoshi Oshitani
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Yuki Furuse: Institute for Frontier Life and Medical Sciences, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
Yura K. Ko: Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai 980-8575, Japan
Kota Ninomiya: National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo 208-0011, Japan
Motoi Suzuki: National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo 208-0011, Japan
Hitoshi Oshitani: Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai 980-8575, Japan

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 9, 1-10

Abstract: Detection and isolation of infected people are believed to play an important role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some countries conduct large-scale screenings for testing, whereas others test mainly people with high prior probability of infection such as showing severe symptoms and/or having an epidemiological link with a known or suspected case or cluster of cases. However, what a good testing strategy is and whether the difference in testing strategy shows a meaningful, measurable impact on the COVID-19 epidemic remain unknown. Here, we showed that patterns of association between effective reproduction number (Rt) and test positivity rate can illuminate differences in testing situation among different areas, using global and local data from Japan. This association can also evaluate the adequacy of current testing systems and what information is captured in COVID-19 surveillance. The differences in testing systems alone cannot predict the results of epidemic containment efforts. Furthermore, monitoring test positivity rates and severe case proportions among the nonelderly can predict imminent case count increases. Monitoring test positivity rates in conjunction with the concurrent Rt could be useful to assess and strengthen public health management and testing systems and deepen understanding of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; surveillance; effective reproduction number; laboratory diagnosis; epidemics; outbreaks; pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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