Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model

Chanhee Lee, Catherine Apio and Taesung Park
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Chanhee Lee: Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
Catherine Apio: Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
Taesung Park: Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 9, 1-9

Abstract: Increasing evidence shows that many infections of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, becoming a global challenge, since asymptomatic infections have the same infectivity as symptomatic infections. We developed a probabilistic model for estimating the proportion of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 patients in the country. We considered two scenarios: one is conservative and the other is nonconservative. By combining the above two scenarios, we gave an interval estimation of 0.0001–0.0027 and in terms of the population, 5200–139,900 is the number of undetected asymptomatic cases in South Korea as of 2 February 2021. In addition, we provide estimates for total cases of COVID-19 in South Korea. Combination of undetected asymptomatic cases and undetected symptomatic cases to the number of confirmed cases (78,844 cases on 2 February 2021) shows that 0.17–0.42% (89,244–218,744) of the population have COVID-19. In conclusion, to control and understand the true ongoing reality of the pandemic, it is of outermost importance to focus on the ratio of undetected asymptomatic cases in the total population.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; asymptomatic; undetected; screening; probabilistic model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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