Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe

Kathleen McColl, Marion Debin, Cecile Souty, Caroline Guerrisi, Clement Turbelin, Alessandra Falchi, Isabelle Bonmarin, Daniela Paolotti, Chinelo Obi, Jim Duggan, Yamir Moreno, Ania Wisniak, Antoine Flahault, Thierry Blanchon, Vittoria Colizza and Jocelyn Raude
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Kathleen McColl: Unite des Virus Emergents, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement 190, Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) 1207, Health, Aix-Marseille University, 13009 Marseille, France
Marion Debin: Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Université, F-75012 Paris, France
Cecile Souty: Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Université, F-75012 Paris, France
Caroline Guerrisi: Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Université, F-75012 Paris, France
Clement Turbelin: Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Université, F-75012 Paris, France
Alessandra Falchi: Laboratoire de Virologie, Unité de Recherche 7310, Université de Corse, 20250 Corte, France
Isabelle Bonmarin: Santé Publique France, 94410 Saint Maurice, France
Daniela Paolotti: Istituto per l’Interscambio Scientifico, ISI Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy
Chinelo Obi: Public Health England, London SE1 8UG, UK
Jim Duggan: School of Computer Science, National University of Ireland, H91 TK33 Galway, Ireland
Yamir Moreno: Institute for Biocomputation and Physics and Complex Systems, University of Zaragoza, 50001 Zaragoza, Spain
Ania Wisniak: Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
Antoine Flahault: Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
Thierry Blanchon: Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Université, F-75012 Paris, France
Vittoria Colizza: Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), Sorbonne Université, F-75012 Paris, France
Jocelyn Raude: Unite des Virus Emergents, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement 190, Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) 1207, Health, Aix-Marseille University, 13009 Marseille, France

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 19, issue 1, 1-23

Abstract: Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one’s risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network ( n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries—France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal.

Keywords: risk perception; optimism bias; unrealistic optimism; COVID-19; pandemic; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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