Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland

Xiuping Yi, Ling Zou, Zigeng Niu, Daoyang Jiang and Qian Cao
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Xiuping Yi: Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Ling Zou: Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Zigeng Niu: Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Daoyang Jiang: Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Qian Cao: Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 10, 1-21

Abstract: Based on the downscaling data of multi-model ensembles of 26 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study calculated the extreme climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the warm winter extreme grade indices to explore winter climate response on the Chinese mainland under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways. The results showed that the temperature in winter increased overall, with the highest temperature increases of 0.31 °C/10a (Celsius per decade) (SSP245) and 0.51 °C/10a (SSP585) and the lowest temperature increases of 0.30 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.49 °C/10a (SSP585). Warm-related extreme weather events such as warm days and warm spell duration indices showed an increasing trend, whereas cold-related extreme weather events such as cold spell duration indices, cold nights, ice days, and frost days showed a decreasing trend. On the regional scale, the maximum temperature increased by more than 2 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.4 °C/10a (SSP585), except in South China, and the minimum temperature increased faster in Qinghai-Tibet and Northeast China compared to elsewhere on the Chinese mainland. Compared with that under SSP585, the frequency and intensity of warm winters in the latter half of the 21st century were lower under SSP245. At the end of the 21st century, under the SSP245 scenario, warm winter frequency in most regions will be reduced to below 60%, but under the SSP585 scenario, it will be more than 80%. Population exposures all showed a downward trend, mainly due to the reduction of warm winter events and the decline of the population under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. If the greenhouse gas emission path is controlled in the SSP245 scenario, the population exposure risk in warm winters can be decreased by 25.87%. This study observed a consistent warming trend on the Chinese mainland under all SSPs in the 21st century and found that stricter emission reduction policies can effectively decrease the population exposure to warm winters.

Keywords: climate change; downscaling; extreme temperatures; population exposure; warm winters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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