Mitigation Planning and Policies Informed by COVID-19 Modeling: A Framework and Case Study of the State of Hawaii

Thomas H. Lee, Bobby Do, Levi Dantzinger, Joshua Holmes, Monique Chyba, Steven Hankins, Edward Mersereau, Kenneth Hara and Victoria Y. Fan
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Thomas H. Lee: Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Bobby Do: Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Levi Dantzinger: Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Joshua Holmes: Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Monique Chyba: Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Steven Hankins: John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA
Edward Mersereau: Behavioral Health Administration, Hawaii Department of Health, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA
Kenneth Hara: Hawaii Department of Defense, Honolulu, HI 96816, USA
Victoria Y. Fan: Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: In the face of great uncertainty and a global crisis from COVID-19, mathematical and epidemiologic COVID-19 models proliferated during the pandemic. Yet, many models were not created with the explicit audience of policymakers, the intention of informing specific scenarios, or explicit communication of assumptions, limitations, and complexities. This study presents a case study of the roles, uses, and approaches to COVID-19 modeling and forecasting in one state jurisdiction in the United States. Based on an account of the historical real-world events through lived experiences, we first examine the specific modeling considerations used to inform policy decisions. Then, we review the real-world policy use cases and key decisions that were informed by modeling during the pandemic including the role of modeling in informing planning for hospital capacity, isolation and quarantine facilities, and broad public communication. Key lessons are examined through the real-world application of modeling, noting the importance of locally tailored models, the role of a scientific and technical advisory group, and the challenges of communicating technical considerations to a public audience.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; modeling; epidemiology; isolation and quarantine; media and communication; public health planning; governance; hospital; pandemic preparedness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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