Modeling and Preliminary Analysis of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on the COVID-19 Epidemic

Chenglong Sun, Liya Chao, Haiyan Li, Zengyun Hu, Hehui Zheng and Qingxiang Li
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Chenglong Sun: School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Liya Chao: School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Haiyan Li: School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
Zengyun Hu: Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Hehui Zheng: National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
Qingxiang Li: School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: Since the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak at the end of 2019, many studies regarding the impact of meteorological factors on the attack have been carried out, and inconsistent conclusions have been reached, indicating the issue’s complexity. To more accurately identify the effects and patterns of meteorological factors on the epidemic, we used a combination of logistic regression (LgR) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) modeling to investigate the possible effects of common meteorological factors, including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface pressure, on the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our analysis shows that: (1) Different countries and regions show spatial heterogeneity in the number of diagnosed patients of the epidemic, but this can be roughly classified into three types: “continuous growth”, “staged shock”, and “finished”; (2) Air temperature is the most significant meteorological factor influencing the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Except for a few areas, regional air temperature changes and the transmission of the epidemic show a significant positive correlation, i.e., an increase in air temperature is conducive to the spread of the epidemic; (3) In different countries and regions studied, wind speed, relative humidity, and surface pressure show inconsistent correlation (and significance) with the number of diagnosed cases but show some regularity.

Keywords: COVID-19 epidemic; meteorological drivers; modeling; LgR model; PLSR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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